SEO vs PPC over time: the same budget, two very different curves.

Ads give you leads this week. SEO gives you leads that keep coming. This guide shows, with simple charts, why the gap between them grows every month and how to plan your budget around it.

Key takeaways

  • PPC (pay per click, like Google Ads) rents visibility: you pay for every click, and the leads stop when the budget stops.
  • SEO builds visibility you own: it starts slower, but the same monthly budget brings more leads each month as pages gain rankings.
  • To grow with ads, you have to raise the budget. To grow with SEO, you mostly need time and consistent work.
  • Most businesses do best with both: ads for speed today, SEO for a lower cost per lead tomorrow.
$10Cost per lead I held for 4+ years in Google Ads lead generation in the recovery sector
~700 → 2,300+Daily organic clicks on a national directory I managed, on the same team and budget
0Ways to pay Google for a higher organic ranking, per Google's own documentation

What is the difference between SEO and PPC?

PPC means pay per click: you bid in an auction, such as Google Ads, and pay every time someone clicks your ad. SEO means search engine optimization: you improve your website so it earns the unpaid results. PPC works the day you turn it on. SEO takes months, but the clicks themselves are free.

The key detail is in how each one is priced. Google explains in its cost-per-click help page that with CPC bidding you pay for each click on your ad, and the Ad Rank page explains that your position is recalculated in an auction every time someone searches, based on your bid, your ad quality and how competitive the auction is. On the organic side, Google's guide to how Search works is direct: Google does not accept payment to crawl a site more often or to rank it higher. You earn organic positions with useful pages, a healthy website and a good reputation. If you are new to the topic, the home page explains how I work on the organic side.

How does SEO grow while the budget stays the same?

Each piece of SEO work is an asset that keeps working. A service page you publish in month 3 can still bring calls in month 30. Every month you add pages, fix problems and earn mentions, and the results stack on top of each other. Ads work like a faucet: the flow stays the same unless you pay more.

The chart below is a simple model, not a promise. Both channels get the same $2,000 every month. Ads deliver about 25 leads a month from the start. SEO brings almost nothing in the first months, then climbs as pages rank, and passes ads around month 12. The real timing depends on your market, your website and your competition, but the shape is what I see again and again.

Monthly leads with the same budget every month

Both channels get $2,000 a month. Ads deliver from day one and stay flat; SEO starts slow and compounds. Illustrative model, not a forecast or a promise. Assumptions are listed under the charts.

SEOGoogle Ads (PPC)
020406080147101316192224MonthSEO 59Ads 25Month 12: SEO passes Ads
See the numbers
MonthSEOGoogle Ads (PPC)
1125
2225
3225
4325
5525
6625
7925
81225
91525
102025
112525
123025
133525
144025
154525
164825
175125
185425
195525
205725
215825
225825
235925
245925

Notice the first months. This is where many owners give up on SEO, because ads look much better on paper. That is normal and expected: Google's SEO Starter Guide says some changes take effect in a few hours and others take several months. The guide on how long SEO takes explains what to expect month by month.

Why does PPC need more money to grow?

With ads, every extra lead has a price. If one lead costs $80 and you want twice as many, you need roughly twice the budget, and often more, because the extra clicks come from more competitive auctions. SEO grows by adding pages and authority, so the monthly fee does not have to rise with the leads.

The next chart asks a simple question: how much would you need to spend on ads each month to get the same number of leads that SEO brings in the model? As the organic curve climbs, the ad budget has to climb with it. The model even assumes the cost per click stays flat, which is generous to ads, because in real auctions buying more clicks usually means bidding higher.

Monthly spend needed to get the same leads

To match the SEO lead curve with ads alone, spend has to grow with every extra lead (at $80 per lead). The SEO budget stays at $2,000. Illustrative model, not a forecast or a promise. Assumptions are listed under the charts.

SEOGoogle Ads (PPC)
$0$2,000$4,000$6,000147101316192224MonthSEO $2,000Ads $4,735
See the numbers
MonthSEOGoogle Ads (PPC)
1$2,000$2,000
2$2,000$2,000
3$2,000$2,000
4$2,000$2,000
5$2,000$2,000
6$2,000$2,000
7$2,000$2,000
8$2,000$2,000
9$2,000$2,000
10$2,000$2,000
11$2,000$2,000
12$2,000$2,400
13$2,000$2,824
14$2,000$3,222
15$2,000$3,575
16$2,000$3,872
17$2,000$4,111
18$2,000$4,296
19$2,000$4,436
20$2,000$4,539
21$2,000$4,615
22$2,000$4,669
23$2,000$4,707
24$2,000$4,735

What happens to the cost per lead over the years?

With ads, the cost per lead stays roughly where the auction puts it, year after year. With SEO, the first year is usually more expensive per lead, because you pay before results arrive. From the second year, the same budget is divided by many more leads, so the cost per lead tends to drop well below ads.

Cost per lead by year

Same $2,000 a month. With ads, every lead costs about the same. With SEO, the same budget is spread over more leads each year. Illustrative model, not a forecast or a promise. Assumptions are listed under the charts.

Google Ads (PPC)SEO
Year 1
$80$186
Year 2
$80$39
Year 3
$80$33

Be honest with yourself about year one. In this model, SEO costs more per lead than ads during the first twelve months. If you cannot wait that long, start with ads and add SEO as soon as cash flow allows. That is exactly what I recommend to new businesses in the local SEO vs Google Ads guide.

What happens if you stop paying?

Ads stop showing as soon as the budget runs out, so leads drop to zero the next day. Pages that already rank keep appearing in Google, so organic leads usually continue for months. They fade slowly if nobody updates the content, fixes new technical issues or answers new competitors, but you do not lose everything overnight.

What happens when you stop paying (after month 24)

Ads stop the day the budget stops. Pages that already rank keep bringing leads for months, slowly fading if nobody maintains them. Illustrative model, not a forecast or a promise. Assumptions are listed under the charts.

SEOGoogle Ads (PPC)
0204060802224262830323436MonthSEO 41Ads 0Budget stops
See the numbers
MonthSEOGoogle Ads (PPC)
225825
235925
245925
25570
26560
27540
28520
29510
30490
31480
32460
33450
34440
35420
36410

Does SEO also help me appear in AI answers?

Yes. Google says there are no extra requirements to appear in AI Overviews or AI Mode: a page needs to be indexed and eligible to show with a snippet, and normal SEO fundamentals still apply. Ads do not earn citations in AI answers. The work that ranks your pages is the same work that gets you cited.

Google's page on AI features and your website lists the basics: let crawlers access your pages, write useful text, keep business information current and use accurate structured data. Assistants like ChatGPT and Perplexity also read the web, and they tend to cite pages that answer questions clearly. This is a new reason why organic work compounds: one good page can now bring visitors from Google, from Maps and from AI answers at the same time. The AI search optimization service covers this in detail.

SEO and PPC side by side

SEOPPC (Google Ads)
How you payMonthly work or a project fee; clicks are freeEvery click, priced in an auction
When results startUsually monthsAs soon as the campaign is approved
How it growsCompounds as pages and authority build upGrows with the budget
When you stopRankings fade slowlyLeads stop right away
Cost per lead over timeHigh in year one, then tends to fallRoughly stable, moves with the auction
AI answersPages can be cited in AI Overviews and assistantsNot cited

How should I split my budget between SEO and PPC?

A practical rule: use ads to cover what you need this month, and put a steady amount into SEO that you can keep for at least a year. As organic leads grow, test lowering bids on searches where you already rank well. Review the split every quarter using real cost per lead from both channels.

  • Measure leads by channel first. Without call and form tracking, you cannot compare cost per lead.
  • Use the ads search terms report to pick which pages SEO should build first.
  • Keep the SEO budget steady. Stopping and starting resets the compounding.
  • Every quarter, compare cost per lead and move budget toward what is cheaper for the same quality.
  • Ask for a model with your own numbers. In a free 30-minute call I can plug in your real cost per click and conversion rate.

To see what a steady SEO budget looks like in practice, check the monthly plans or the recovery directory case study, where daily organic clicks grew from about 700 to more than 2,300.

How the model in these charts works

Every number in the charts comes from the assumptions below. They are round, simple numbers chosen to show the shape of each channel, not data from a client or a benchmark. Your own cost per click, conversion rate and ramp speed will be different, and in some very competitive markets SEO can take longer to pass ads.

AssumptionValue in the model
Monthly budget, both channels$2,000
Average cost per click (Ads)$4
Visitors who become leads (both)5%
Ad leads per month25 (cost per lead $80)
SEO rampNear zero in months 1 to 3, about half of its plateau by month 12, close to 60 leads a month by month 24
After the budget stopsAds: zero the next month. SEO: keeps 97% of its leads each month

Frequently asked questions

Is SEO cheaper than PPC?

Usually not in the first months, because you pay for work before results arrive. Over one to two years, the cost per lead from SEO tends to fall below ads because the same budget brings more leads each month.

Should I stop Google Ads once SEO works?

Not all at once. Lower bids on searches where you already rank in the top positions and watch total leads. Keep ads for new services, new areas and seasonal peaks.

Can I pay Google to rank higher organically?

No. Google states that it does not accept payment to rank a site higher. Organic positions are earned with useful pages, a healthy site and a good reputation.

Are the numbers in the charts real results?

No. They come from a simple model with the assumptions listed at the end of the guide. My own verified results are on the results page.

How long before SEO passes my ads?

It depends on competition, your website and how much you publish. In the model it happens around month 12. I can estimate it with your data in a free call.

Juan José Giraldo, SEO consultant

About the author

Juan José Giraldo is an SEO consultant in Medellín, Colombia, with 5+ years of experience. He works on technical and local SEO for 600+ US car dealerships at an Inc. 5000 agency and supervises the SEO of 18 US online stores with more than 3 million products. Read more · LinkedIn.

Sources

  1. Google Search Central, In-depth guide to how Google Search works
  2. Google Ads Help, About Ad Rank
  3. Google Ads Help, Cost-per-click (CPC): Definition
  4. Google Search Central, AI features and your website
  5. Google Search Central, SEO Starter Guide

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